a theory of finance

thu23oct2008—43w297d81%— 21h19m00s—0utc

Who of all the Wise could have foreseen it? Or, if they are wise, why should they expect to know it, until the hour has struck?

J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring

Apropos of the many pundits awoken by the finance crisis:

Foretelling MUST be part of any worthwhile understanding. (We can all come up on demand with plausible histories after the fact and “description — often bad description — hiding behind obfuscatory rubbish.”))

Speculation’s to finance, what experimentation’s to science: THE TEST. No one salubriously rich can claim to understand finance. Whoever REALLY understands it is welcome to big bucks any day.

Heard that Douglas Adams’s creation story?

There is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarrely inexeplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened.

Same thing may happen with finance:

Any understandable glimmer of it is too good an opportunity not to be instantly complicated away in the efforts to milk it.

This all but an instance of a bigger theory that claims:

your inability to foretell things foretelling abler (smarter) than you.
The future, society, others, and even you, among such things.

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